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 12-15-2009, 06:07 PM | #1 |
Trotman Veteran Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 791 | Pars Cynthia and others have pars for class ranges and distances for T-breds but I am not aware of the same for Harness from anyone,which led me to make my own. Although time consuming I find very benificial separating pretenders from contenders. |
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| 12-15-2009, 09:14 PM | #2 |
Ray2000 Apple 2GS Wiz Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Clarion, Pa Posts: 8,478 | Trotman, here's the numbers I'm using, not exactly PAR times as Cynthia Publishing, but might be helpful. Code: __________________ |
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| 12-15-2009, 10:35 PM | #3 |
harness2008 TM Big5 4th place Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Utica, NY Posts: 234 | Hey Trotman, Are you referring to the internal pace fractions for different racetracks as opposed to just the comparative final times? If so we had a deep discussion of this a while back. Check the search function under Pace and Speed in Harness. You'll find some interesting ideas there. |
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| 12-15-2009, 11:48 PM | #4 |
Trotman Veteran Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 791 | Harness 2008,Ray2000....this past year 2009 was the review year for me which means come the end of Dec. all my par times will be adjusted if needed for both Trotters and Pacers going back 4 years and including 2009 for both Woodbine and Mohawk. Right now Ray the figs you have for both gaits for Woodbine and Mohawk are off by 2 and 3 full seconds. To both of you no disrespect because a forum like this is to help one another and you and anyone else are welcome to my pars. I utilize my pars in paceline selection and they are bang on when it comes to throwing out the pretenders usually half or better of a 10 horse field. |
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| 12-16-2009, 01:36 AM | #5 |
harness2008 TM Big5 4th place Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Utica, NY Posts: 234 | Hey, no need to smooth over the edges Trotman, it's all good. We all have our own methods to tackle this game and I am always open to new and interesting ideas to better my knowledge of the sport. Good luck with taking these tracks down! |
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| 12-16-2009, 07:48 AM | #6 |
Ray2000 Apple 2GS Wiz Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Clarion, Pa Posts: 8,478 | I knew when I posted those numbers, it deserved an explanation but I went without one. I'm not that familiar with T-Bred Par times other than it attempts to relate class, distance, track and (?) to see what a performer could do under a new set of circ*mstances. So I looked for any raw data that I had listing CLASS vs Final times at different tracks. This opens up a big can of worms in that how does one categorize class. In harness I don't see how you can use earnings, considering the vast differences in purse structure from track to track (Damn slots) or claiming prices or any other of the myriad of ways Race Secretaries classify their cards, so you're left with Trackmaster Class Ratings. That has it's own problems. Even if you're confident of TM numbers, the class ratings are based on TM's proprietary Track Speed Ratings so you end up chasing your tail. So I posted the above table of Ave Final Times vs Ave TM Class at different tracks just for a rough comparison. Trotman: I'm also updating my stats for this year and I just noticed SC has summarized Post Position Stats for all tracks, Here are my Speed Ratings (partially derived from the above tables) and Standardbred Canada ratings based on 2008 data. Code: Post Positions __________________ |
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| 12-16-2009, 11:45 AM | #7 |
markgoldie Registered User Join Date: May 2009 Location: philadelphia Posts: 928 | Trackmaster carries a class rating for all races. It is reasonably accurate, although it differs slightly from a true class par in that it is adjusted to the actual strength of the race. Because of this, a $10,000 claimer, for example, may vary a few points in class rating depending on the field. On the other hand, this is actually more useful in handicapping because it tells you the actual strength of the field in which a horse competed and not what the general strength of the field should be. On the other hand, maybe you are creating a "time" par, rather than a class-rating par. If so, you are really facing a demanding job, since times are subject to weather and track condition, as well as PACE, which has a huge effect on the final time of a race. Also, veteran handicappers will tell you that there are frequent time "anomalies" that occur. They may be caused by teletimer malfunctions or the particular pace/flow patterns of the given event. But for whatever reason, these anomlaies can play havoc with your calculations. When faced with a time that seems to be too fast or too slow, the best advice is to ignore it in your handicapping unless proven otherwise by the horses that perform off of such an event. If several return to perform well, you may have a "key" race event in which others who return to race later may be upgraded. However, these situations are very rare, which leads me to believe that the teletimer must always be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. |
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| 12-16-2009, 12:07 PM | #8 |
markgoldie Registered User Join Date: May 2009 Location: philadelphia Posts: 928 | Ray; I use TM power ratings. However, there are two crucial adjustments that must be made to these numbers. The first is the track-to-track adjustment. While TM does a reasonably good job of determining the overall track speed of a given card (by which I mean they'll keep you somewhere in the ballpark), they do a terrible job of translating the numbers from track to track. For this reason, for example, we have a situation in Chicago where many of the same horses will cross-race between BMLP and MAY. And yet, on a consistent basis, the MAY numbers are 5 points higher than the BMPL numbers. This means that unless you know that you must subtract 5 points from horses coming from MAY (when betting BMPL), you wind up betting all the MAY horses if you were betting on a TM number basis. Thus, the bettor who uses the TM power numbers must keep his or her own track-to-track comparison to make the proper adjustments. The second crucial adjustment that must be made relates to the pace of the event in which the power figure was earned. Fast-paced races tend to go faster (as to overall time) than slow-paced events. Hence, many times you will see a horse with "bouncing" numbers, but if you adjust them to the pace of the race in question, you'll find that they are much "smoother" than they originally look. The method I use for adjustment of TM number to pace is a bit complicated, but essentially it uses a 50% of the pace differential (first vs, second half), calculated in fifths of a second and applied to the raw power number. The tricky part is that you must assess the horse's positioning in the race so as to evaluate how the pace may have helped or hindered him. For ex., we look to downgrade a TM number for a fast pace but if the horse was making that pace, he was doing all the hard work and I would not downgrade such an effort. On the other hand, if he were closing into a fast-pace race, with a favorable trip, I would certainly want to downgrade the power number he earned. |
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| 12-16-2009, 02:41 PM | #9 |
Ray2000 Apple 2GS Wiz Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Clarion, Pa Posts: 8,478 | Top Notch comments, Mark, thanks for posting I've always been skeptical enough on TMaster's numbers to try and make my own. They say track variances, daily variance DTV and post positions are used in their formula but they don't reveal the track variances. (And I'm not sure they adjust for trailers on post positions) Here's their info... http://www.trackmaster.com/harness/info/ratings.htm On your second point about pace, there was an interesting discussion here a while back (as Harness2008 mentioned). Here's the thread in case you missed it. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=63109 __________________ |
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| 12-16-2009, 04:06 PM | #10 |
Trotman Veteran Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 791 | Ray here are the numbers I use for Woodbine Trotters 1:57.3 and for pacers 1:53.3, for Mohawk I use 1:56.3 for Trotters and 1:53 for Pacers. I keep a track variant record daily and I add a raw fig. for post position. Some of the best money you can steal is when they switch tracks you have your basic 7/8 track Woodbine and you have the Hawk with it's teardrop shape, Turn Times so important. |
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| 12-17-2009, 10:56 AM | #11 |
LottaKash Registered User Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 6,843 | I have been gnawing on these aspects, par-times & pace, for some time now....Meaning I wanted to add something valuable to the discussion of both Final-Time & Pace, but I have been hesitant of late to enter these discussions, because I wasn't sure of what I wanted to say, and if it would matter to anyone but myself .... Since March of this year (09), I have re-invented by view and implementation of pace & final times, into my handicapping....This is due to my conversion from the "plain-vanilla" past performances to the "New"- "Pace Past Performance" (PPP) programs offered by Trackmaster....Since then I have become a "Pure Pace" convert (a nut actually)....I had always used pace to some degree in my handicapping right along with final-time, just not nearly to the extent that I use "pace" now..... For me, a thorough "pace-analysis" and understanding of how it affected the running lines of a horse had always been the missing ingredient in my handicapping ( even tho I had been moderately successful & profitablel up until this time)...No longer true now... When I come right down to it, I have found that I really don't use Final-Times much anymore, at that.....How can that be ?, you say...A year ago I would have said and asked the same....Since PPP's burst onto the scene, Pace has become "my answer" of how "fast & fit" & "race-ready" a horse may be today..... Since this sweeping change of venue, I had been flipping and flopping the "new-numbers" in an effort to come up with some creative ways to implement them into my handicapping....So, with a "LOT" (exhausting is more like it) of trial & error, I have observed some "Pace-Patterns" that are both devastating and insighful when properly interrpreted, while using them alongside & with the "Running-lines" of a horse.... I am not at liberty to divulge too much about these "patterns" as of this post, as they are very "proprietary" and will have much to do with my forthcoming "book".....As I stated before, they have changed my "whole" way of going these days, and I am so glad and grateful for them (new numbers)...I truly believed earlier in the year, that I had come as far as I could go in handicapping the "trots"....I no longer believe that now, as each day I become "more right" about my opinions, and now more than ever...The truth is in the results, and they bare this out to me... Pace makes the Race, is indeed true, at least for me, and as Mark Goldie had stated earlier in this thread, that "final-time" is moslty a result of pace....But, so many things throw a chink into the armor of "final-time", such as the "weather" (rain, wind, drying tracks, moisture laden tracks ), "seasons" (temps going dramtically up or down from one day/week to the next) or "track maintenance", have much to do with the "final-times" of a race, as they create "Bias's" for both "final-time" & "running styles" on any given day.....For instance, at this time of the year, when it is getting sharply colder in many areas of the nation, you will often see a 2 or more seconds difference in the last 5 to 6 running lines, and you will notice a horse that won in 1:53 last week, and even tho todays track is listed as "fast", the timer-today says the final time of the winner is 1:57...What gives and how can this be ?... If you rely solely on final time as your measuring stick, how can you use or explain that oddity to your benefit ?....It is hard, and it is a guessing game at times, and how can you put your hard earned kash based on these premise's... You can't or shouldn't , I'd say....But I did, and most still have to and do...In these cases I would tend to use the Trackmaster SR (speed rating) more than the final-time in such cases or "always" at that.... Sometimes when I find a "goodie" that has a monster "pace-pattern" advantage, the crowd might be all over him, and then I would say something like, "I guess the crowd is getting the hang of pace and is now using it", "then" I would look to the final time and see that he "happened" to have the fastest final-time as well.....So I laugh, as I thought I have a price going in that race.....Still, in other races, I would get the same pace-pattern advantage, but the final time is not fastest, their is "VALUE" then..... As for shippers, I had often ( not always) been in quandry about them, for, as Mark Goldie had stated in this thread, the TM-SR's don't often transfer well to a different track (especially a different size track)... For instance (again) the SR of Maywood to Balmoral change is an abomination, and has cost me a "lottakash" before I finally got the message....But for me now, "pace-patterns" usually tell me if the shipper is "well-meant" tonite or not....It costs money to ship a horse to another track, and there is "always" a reason for the change, but by using "pace-patterns" you can usually have your answer as to the why of the ship....You can score with a shipper if your "pace-pattern" interpretation is sound... I don't know if anyone is getting anything out of any or all of this, so let me conclude this long winded post by saying this one last thing.... Everyone sees the final times, and if you don't make any adjustment to make them more accurate, you don't stand a chance to make any serious kash in the long run..... A complete understanding of Pace is the way to go in Harness Racing, as it is very underutilized, and more so than in the T-breds.....I believe it is your only shot to improve your game and make it all worthwhile.... Still, nothing can replace a correct assessment of "form" & "class" & "Angles", but by combining "Recency & Pace" with the above, it can give you some insight(s) about what the " Trainer's intentions on Raceday" might be, and that is what this is all about, isn't it ?..... Imo, Final-time is overrated and overused by the crowd...You must look elsewhere for the value that you need to stay in this game... best, __________________ "Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV) |
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| 12-17-2009, 12:51 PM | #12 |
markgoldie Registered User Join Date: May 2009 Location: philadelphia Posts: 928 | Okay. Let me just make some general comments relative to the discussion here. I also just read the thread on pace that Ray referenced. Par times: The ONLY reasonable use for par times is as a vehicle to create an accurate track variant for a given night. The reason is simple and should be obvious- a par time for a class (either final time or fractional) is based on a long term average. But unless we know the particular track speed for a given card, the fact that a horse beat or did not beat a par for the class is totally meaningless. So as a STAND ALONE measure of performance, beating, matching, or failure to beat a par is a futile exercise. Now. But you might say: Wait! If I am comparing the ability to beat or not beat par times across ALL the races of the night and I am looking at ALL the horses that competed, then clearly I am doing something worthwhile. My answer to this would be: Yes, you are. And what you are doing is creating a track variant for the card. So back to my original statement: The only reasonable use for pars is as a vehicle to create a variant. Variants: As I said earlier, I use TM's numbers in the belief that they do a ballpark reasonable job of creating a variant. Could we do better? Sure. How? Well, a creative variant construction takes into account (1) The possibility of a changing track speed during the course of the card. This can happen when moisture falls during the racing but also in times of the year when the temperature changes significantly during the racing. This effect is generally most pronounced at tracks where they race a "twilight" card, such as Dover or The Meadows. (2) You need a rudimentary understanding of the quality of the horses on the individual card when it comes to condition races for young horses. In these areas, an outstanding individual or two can skew the variant by posting very fast final times vs. par. ( A quick example would be a NW of 2R LT in which a stakes performer enters and obliterates the class par by 3 seconds. If you average in this performance, it will make the track appear faster than it really was.) Pace: An entire book could be written on this subject. Each track has it's own "normal" pace profile which indicates what pace abilities a horse must have in order to be successful. On half milers and some 5/8 tracks, early pace ability is paramount. On some milers, not as much, although one of my pet theories is that harness horses are becoming more and more like thoroughbreds every day. They look more like them, act more like them, and increasingly race more like them. For this reason, with the possible exception of BMLP, speed is a crucial attribute even on mile tracks. For ex., without speed you are relatively dead at Lex, Hoo, Ind., and M. Because harness horses are racing more like t-breds, I think it's useful to view their racing styles much in the same way t-bred handicappers view it. T-bred cappers break down racing styles into E, E/P, P, and S types. For harness racing, I prefer a simpler designation: E, E/C, and C. This stands for early speed (E), flexible (E/C), and straight closer (C). Here, the designation E means that the horse almost always leaves for the lead or for positioning. E/C means that he can do either and C means the horse never or rarely leaves. The importance of this exercise is what you will find relative to on-the-board percentages. Just like in t-bred racing, the E horses have the highest win and WPS percentages, followed by the E/C and the C types bring up the rear. So what does this mean? It means that guys who are using mathematical formulas in which they incorporate late speed ability are barking up the wrong tree. It also means that those using middle-move pace are off base as well, because the best middle move numbers are virtually always posted by horses which did NOT leave. THEREFORE, the only significantly important addition to a final-time-ability analysis is early speed capability. You should begin to view races a t-bred cappers view races: that is, things being equal, the race belongs to the speed animals in it and when the closers win, it is only because the speed broke down for some reason. This last statement is an important one. Furthermore, the only track variant I am interested in constructing on my own (remember I leave the overall variant to TM), is the first-quarter variant for the night. This, my fellow cappers and players, is where today's game is being fought, won, and lost. And you will save yourself a lot of wasted time and aggravation if you just totally jettison all analysis of final halves, final quarters OR their combination with any other fractions of the race. If you concentrate on early speed, you will find that the track variant for the first quarter fluctuates much more than you might think and I think the reason is not only track condition, but wind speed and direction as well. Look for dominant speed horses who either have the ability to win wire-to-wire OR to sit up close and win. Of the two, the horse with w-t-w ability is considerably more potent because these horses almost universally have the ability to sit close and win, whereas, the close-up closer may not have the ability to win if forced to go w-t-w. Finally, to properly assess early speed capability, I use a percentage of the first quarter as a fraction of the total race time. I compare these on a nightly basis (not versus a par), in order to find the hot-pace races. Horses that show the ability to contest a hot first quarter and still survive to perform well in the class are potent threats to win next out, when the pace may not be so demanding. Now. I realize that this is only a small part of overall handicapping. But what I am essentially saying is that if you want to work with fractional figures, do yourself a favor: throw out everything and concentrate on early-speed ability. |
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| 12-17-2009, 02:45 PM | #13 |
LottaKash Registered User Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 6,843 | Markgoldie....I always read you posts and comments with great enthusiasm and keen interest....I never fail to gain at least a little something in each and every one of them....Thanks for your most welcome insights.... Since this "thread" is the first time I have ever seen you post anything about the "Dark-Side" of horse racing, I say welcome to the Dark-Ones.... I can't find any fault with your most recent post(s), as I agree with most everything you have said, and your comments and your facts are very well stated, at that..... I wish I could communicate my thoughts as well as you... I agree wholeheartedly about "early speed" being a prime prerequisite to winning most harness races.....Still, since being on my recent serendipitous "pace-pattern" journey, I must say that superior pace-patterns, combined with some sort of change or angle, is what turned my game into an even more advanced state from where I had previously been... As I stated that final time is overrated and overplayed, but finding superior pace-advantages has unlocked some "windowed" doors that I could see thru, but couldn't quite find a way to get in.....I have new ways to open those doors these days....What I am driving at is, when a horse has a superior pace advantage, he can set, maintain or overcome any pace scenario that is thrown at him on "most-nites", or else he will race as in "a race within a race" and his superior pace will become hidden for next week's encounter...More and more I am finding pace-advantaged horses, even when his numbers were generated late in his last race or two, will sometimes, suddenly become a "Frontrunner" and will take the whole field down the pike and leave them gasping for air in the process...And, this horse may have shown no propensity to take the lead in any of his races, at that......Or even on a front-end bias nite, a superior pace advantaged horse while racing from well off the pace in tonites race, will often, simply go very wide before the last turn, and just bull his way to the top late in the race, and , win going away...These are the new opportunities that have revealed themselves, to me, as of late..... While I have always had a decent grasp on early speed and it's importance.....Finding a superior pace advantage, no matter how it was ( racing style) accomplished, has rounded me out as a player....I am more complete as a handicapper as ever, due to pace & it's patterns....Because of "pace" many age-old questions that I have had thru the years, have been answered, and more so each day....I am using pace-patterns to better understand why a horse may have lost, or any mistakes and oversights that I may have made in the handicapping process, as well... Give me 8 horses (any racing style) with equal "final-times" or TM-SR's, and the Pace-patterned-advantaged horse, accompanied with a change of some sort, will skin them alive.... best, __________________ "Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV) |
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| 12-17-2009, 06:13 PM | #14 |
Trotman Veteran Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 791 | To all of you I agree with all that has been said. PACE IS THE RACE is HUGE. To clear something up I utilize my own pars for paceline selection ONLY. The littlest or subtle move in the shape of pace usually is an indication of more to come.Handicapping harness racing is like standing in one of those wave pool water parks and trying to measure how fast the wave moves from side to side,we play in a condensed one mile pool,do we pay more attention to early,early pressured,sustained or turn time and finish. IMO we adapt through modelling and change. I appreiciate all we have discussed in this thread. |
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| 12-17-2009, 08:31 PM | #15 |
Stick Registered User Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 272 | Let me play devil's advocate for a moment. Here are the things that determine the pace of the race 1) horses leaving at the beginning of the race 2) horses brushing to the lead once the leavers settle in 3) the first over horse Once #1 and #2 are done the horse on the lead and #3 will determine how fast or how slow the race goes. The reason this is a problem is that the horse in the 2 hole and the horses 2nd and 3rd over are only running as fast as the pace until the top of the lane, or maybe even farther for the 2 hole horse. Their moves in the race and their fractions are restricted and can not be looked at as what they can achieve in another situation. Just like the final time is directly related to pace, pace is also sometimes at the mercy of the horse on the lead and the horse 1st over. The key is to find the horse ( at the right price) that can win in different pace scenarios. |
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